闯关东

据悉，自默克尔执政时期中德贸易额连续数年实现“翻倍式增长”，中国在2016年正式超过美国成为德国第一大贸易伙伴，这在当时被德媒形容为“奇迹”。    "[The US export restrictions] will not have much impact on the Chinese semiconductor industry," says Professor Thomas Canhao Xu of Beijing Normal University (BNU) and Hong Kong Baptist University. "These restrictions are associated with the 3 nanometer (nm) technologies while China is now producing 28nm chips for the most part, which are previous generation technologies. The fact is that the 28nm chip technology is mature and the main demand is for chips manufactured in the [28nm lithography] process. Chip manufacturers receive their main income from this product.",On 12 August, the US Department of Commerce’s Bureau of Industry and Security (BIS) announced that it would impose restrictions on technologies which support manufacturing of advanced semiconductors and turbines to protect them from "nefarious" military and commercial use.,Controls On Chip Exports To China Will Not Work, Trade War May Cost US Up To $100bn, ASML Exec Says15 April 2021, 11:23 GMT,The technologies covered by the newly introduced controls include two substrates of ultra-wide bandgap semiconductors, ie gallium oxide and diamond; electronic computer-aided design software ECAD made for the development of integrated circuits with a Gate-All-Around field-effect transistor (GAAFET) structure; and pressure-gain combustion (PGC) technology that can be used in rockets and hypersonic systems.,The world's leading chip manufacturers such as Samsung, TSMC and Intel have already placed their bets on the GAAFET technology to produce smaller and quicker chips in the future. It is also expected that diamonds and gallium oxides will be used to make semiconductors enabling them to operate under harsher conditions, such as at higher voltages or higher temperatures. Consequently, the aforementioned technologies will help multiply the density of transistors and interconnects on a single chip thus dramatically improving their performance.,Even though the BIS restrictions do not explicitly mention China, it is clear that they are aimed at preventing Beijing from gaining access to breakthrough technologies, according to Bloomberg.,"Breakthrough technologies are undeniably important, but they represent only a small fraction of the entire semiconductor industry," argues Xu. "The long-term effect of these restrictions on China will depend on how China develops its own industry, including equipment for the production of chips. On the horizon of 10 to 20 years, significant changes may occur in the industry and fundamentally new technologies may appear.",WorldUS New Chips Law Will Undermine Global Supply Chains: Chinese Foreign Ministry10 August, 12:00 GMT,China Continuing Hi-Tech Development Regardless of US Sanctions,The newly announced restrictions followed a bombshell report of industry watcher TechInsights which revealed that China's Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corp (SMIC) had probably built semiconductors using a 7nm technology.,Earlier, China-based MinerVa Semiconductor Corp., named by TechInsights as SMIC’s customer, demonstrated a 7nm chip on its website, adding that mass production of these semis began in July 2021, according to Bloomberg's 21 July report.,"This is the most advanced technology product TechInsights has seen from SMIC so far and may be leading to a true 7nm process that incorporates scaled logic and memory bitcells," TechInsights explained on 19 July. "It also has key implications for Chinese chip companies, as it helps to reduce China’s reliance on western technologies in this time of restricted access.",The report caught many by surprise given that SMIC had long specialized in 14nm technology. Furthermore, since late 2020, Washington has banned the unlicensed sale of equipment that can be used to make semiconductors of 10nm and beyond to the Chinese company. If SMIC has indeed managed to make a technological leap, it would mean that Washington's sanctions policy failed to curb China's technological development, according to Bloomberg.,The US government is well aware of the problem: according to the White House, at present the US produces roughly 10 percent of the world’s supply of chips, whereas East Asia accounts for a whopping 75 percent of global production. Washington is striving to win the technological race with the Asian giant by imposing further restrictions and expanding investments in the domestic chip industry.,Thus, on 9 August, President Joe Biden signed into law a bipartisan CHIPS and Science Act which includes more than $52Bln for US companies producing semiconductors, as well as billions more in tax credits to encourage investment in the industry. Yet another objective of the newly inked legislation is to prevent American investors from directly or indirectly contributing to the development of semiconductor production in China. One of the conditions for obtaining a government subsidy under the new law is the obligation not to invest in the development of the 28nm and more advanced technologies in China for 10 years.,Huawei Spent $22 Billion on Research in 2021 As Company Resists US Sanctions - Report27 April, 02:45 GMT,For its part, China aims to develop its own technologies, instead of following in the footsteps of western manufacturers. The People's Republic has already proved that alternative solutions are possible and that it can set new global technological standards. For instance, Huawei telecommunications equipment made a splash in global markets when the company developed its own SingleRAN algorithm, which allows configuring one base station to provide communication in 2G, 3G and 4G standards simultaneously. When it comes to the semiconductor industry, China is developing its own technology to produce silicon carbide chips.,Beijing is sparing no expense in research and development (R&D) of promising technologies: according to China's official statistics, the People's Republic's spending on R&D rose 10.3 percent to 2.44 trillion Chinese yuan ($378Bln) and accounted for 2.4 percent of GDP in 2020. Last year, China's Premier Li Keqiang promised that the country's research and development spending would grow by more than 7 percent per year between 2021 and 2025.。

二 | 因为从二战后苏联和美国分割东西德国，这两个国家就一直在美苏的“阴影”之下，美方控制德国经济的超过半个世纪之久。从默克尔上台决定和中国大力发展关系，仅过了十几年时间中德就成为最大贸易伙伴；德媒称成就建立在中国和德国地理上还非常遥远，这使得贸易关系的保持更具价值性。

三 |

然而在9日当天，德国统计局发布一份报告，上面显示1月至3月，德国与美国的进出口贸易总额总计680亿美元，这一数据已经高于中德进出口贸易总额约640亿美元，意味着美国在季度统计中首次“抢回”了第一名的位置。

四 | 消息人士称这只是季度报告，如果德美在后续因为其他因素（如美国大选）受到影响的话，那么他们能否保持这一关系成为“年度第一”还不确定。当然从现在的趋势来看，德国正在在和美国贸易额升高，和中国则是下降。

《柏林时报》和《镜报》等媒体引述德国经济研究所部门负责人马特斯的说法称，由于一些复杂的原因，现阶段德国似乎正在做出“重新定位”，从中国转向美国。至于原因媒体推测和德国政府做出对华“去依赖化”有很大关系，德方虽然说“拒绝脱钩”但是在这一基础上刻意削减对中国的贸易额，缩小在原材料、化工、零件等领域的进口，使得贸易额下降。

五 | 再加上去年“中国战略”的出台，德国已经将长期逐渐缩减对中国的贸易当做一项基本政策了。

分析人士斯塔默则表示，比较乐观的是德国和中国贸易还有一项“结构性衰减”，即很多德企为了便利已经在中国开设分部，或是直接将生产线迁移、和中国合资生产，这部分贸易额不算在双边进出口资产中。“结构性衰减”是中德经济融合更紧密的例证，这也是好的趋势；但更应该看到的是德国“红绿灯”执政联盟对美国的靠拢，和对他们最大贸易伙伴中国的莫名仇视，无论怎么粉饰，德国政府所谓的“减少依赖”就是“脱钩”的一部分，只是他们还没有能力完全脱离罢了。

值得一提的还有，数据显示德国对美进口增长受到了俄乌冲突很大影响，德国当前的天然气非常依赖从美国海运，他们对美进口的粮食、精加工矿产、工业设备和农业产品也出现了明显的增长幅度，这些原来都是德国向俄罗斯进口的货物。对此有评论称：“德外长刚在澳大利亚扬言‘中国对南太平洋形成威胁’，还要将军舰开过来，这种情况下能期待中德贸易变好吗？现在不是一群务实的人在执政，而是一群政客在玩丑陋的政治把戏而已。”